Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 18, 2025

June 18, 2025 New interview on the war with Iran: [link] or: Share Share EOA’s Main Takeaway Though crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories align with historical trends, the crude inventory drop was notable, approaching the lower end of the 5-year range. This was the largest weekly decline in a year and exceeded most analysts' expectations.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 8, 2025

June 8, 2025 Europe’s energy landscape is transforming as the continent reduces its reliance on imported natural gas. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU accelerated efforts to diversify gas supplies, launching the REPowerEU plan to phase out fossil fuels and other plans to reduce imports form Russia. Russian gas imports dropped from 45% to 19% of total consumption by 2024, with increased LNG imports from the US.

Gas

Energy Outlook Advisors

JULY 25, 2025

Colleagues, This is a short note. Reuters misreported an OPEC+ story, causing oil price declines. For months, we've noticed timed story releases that shift oil prices. Reuters' journalists are either confused or deliberately misreporting. The OPEC+ JMMC meeting on Monday is routine and unlikely to affect markets, unrelated to voluntary cuts or their unwinding.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

AUGUST 3, 2025

A F Alhajji Aug 03, 2025 Subscribe now The group of 8 within OPEC+ (The V8) concluded its monthly meeting, deciding to raise the production ceiling by 547 kb/d in September, returning all 2.2 mb/d voluntary cuts to the market. We emphasize that this is the "production ceiling," not "actual production," and that production differs from exports. The market impact is limited as the decision was anticipated.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JULY 30, 2025

July 30, 2025 Global Commercial Oil Inventories They have increased significantly in recent weeks, surpassing 2024 levels in the last three weeks but remaining below the five-year average. Historical trends suggest they should soon decline. However, most of the increase came from China as shown below.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JULY 5, 2025

The OPEC+ group of eight, the V8, which made voluntary cuts and began unwinding them in April, met virtually today and decided to raise the production ceiling by 548 kb/d in August, four times the initial increase planned last December. This exceeded market expectations, including ours, of 411 kb/d. Here is an excerpt from the press release “ In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with

Barrel

Energy Outlook Advisors

JULY 2, 2025

July 2, 2025 New interview with information on the impact of EVs in China on oil demand: Our team is traveling to Vienna next week to attend an OPEC Seminar and meet key energy industry figures.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JULY 16, 2025

July 16, 2025 Today, we begin with China, though the report focuses on the US, as Chinese oil inventories have reached record highs, as shown in Figure (A). How did this happen, and what is its impact on the global oil market? Discussion below.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 21, 2025

Subscribe Sign in Share this post Energy Outlook Advisors Newsletter 30-minute Video: Iran, Israel, and Why a U.S. Trade Deal with China Is Vital to Prevent an Oil Price Decline (30-minute video) Copy link Facebook Email Notes More 30-minute Video: Iran, Israel, and Why a U.S. Trade Deal with China Is Vital to Prevent an Oil Price Decline (30-minute video) Anas Alhajji Jun 21, 2025 6 Share this post Energy Outlook Advisors Newsletter 30-minute Video: Iran, Israel, and Why a U.S.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 12, 2025

Breaking News: Israel attacks targets in Iran. Oil prices increased by about 7% Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 13, 2025

June 13, 2025 CNBC Interview on the Israeli attack on Iran and its impact on the oil market (this was over 20 ours ago, but many points remain valid): [link] or: [link] Also: [link] EOA: Iran’s Crude Oil Exports Summary The Biden Administration ignored Trump’s Iran sanctions in 2021 to renegotiate the nuclear deal. As talks failed in late 2021 and enforcement was considered, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led the administration to overlook sanctions in 2022 to offset lost Russian

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 11, 2025

June 11, 2025 Attack on Iran/Iraq? Brent oil prices rose above $70/b and WTI was around $69/b on Thursday morning in Asia after the US evacuated personnel from Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain amid rising tensions with Iran. The UK government's maritime trade operations division warned mariners of "increased tensions" that could escalate military activity.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 4, 2025

June 4, 2025 Share Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway Last week's data gives a sense of normalcy: It generally followed historical trends, with higher refinery utilization reducing crude inventories and increasing product inventories. Imports and exports changes were minimal. Crude inputs into refineries was the highest in almost a year.

Refinery

Energy Outlook Advisors

JUNE 3, 2025

In this episode of the Brussels Signal Horizon Podcast, Dr. Anas F. Alhajji discusses with @ralph-schoellhammer the complexities of the oil market, particularly focusing on OPEC and its role in managing oil production and prices. He emphasizes that OPEC is not a cartel but rather a necessary management entity for the oil market. The conversation delves into the historical context of OPEC´s formation, its evolution into OPEC Plus, and the future of oil management amidst changing global dynam

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 31, 2025

Breaking News: Subscribe now OPEC+ V8 decided to increase production ceiling by 411 kbd in July. The impact is limited as we disused in the past (please see previous published Note and Podcasts on the subject). Please contact us if you have any questions. The production ceiling has risen by about 1.37 mb/d. The remaining voluntary cuts is 0.827 mb/d.

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 29, 2025

US & Global Inventories, US Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (14 Charts).

Refinery

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 28, 2025

Today's OPEC+ meeting is irrelevant to the oil market this summer. No decision on July's output will be made today; the V8 will decide on Saturday. Here are our expectations and their impact on the oil market: Subscribe now The eight OPEC+ members (The V8) who agreed to voluntary cuts began unwinding them in April. They decided to expedite the unwinding in May and June, likely extending to July.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 26, 2025

Share Turkey, a G20 member, seeks to boost its economic and geopolitical influence regionally and globally, particularly in energy. Ankara aims to reduce natural gas imports by expanding solar, wind, and domestic gas supplies, and building nuclear power plants. Turkey aims to be a key oil and gas hub, serving as a transit country between Russia, the Caspian region, and Europe, a position that will benefit Turkey economically and enhance its political clout and influence.

Gas

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 26, 2025

Here is a link to a presentation at the Money Show in Dallas, TX The Real Energy Crisis No One’s Talking About Here is a link to a recent interview: AnasAlhajji Talks All Things Energy Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 21, 2025

May 21, 2025 New interview: Energy Politics, Oil, and LNG Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway Read more

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 21, 2025

Here is a recent interview in which we discussed the following topics: Trump in the Middle East Crude markets, OPEC+, trade wars, and tariffs Oil sanctions on Russia and Iran Energy politics and Trump's energy stance AI and bitcoin Link1: [link] or Link2: Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Energy

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 18, 2025

Subscribe now Oil market data has deteriorated since 2017 due to the US EIA's inability to define "crude" and distinguish actual crude production in shale plays. Crude production numbers include condensates and NGLs, counted as NGLs on the demand side but as crude when blended with Canadian crude for export. This issue is global, as agencies, banks, and consultants rely on EIA data.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 14, 2025

May 14, 2025 Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway We've warned about declining distillate inventories for weeks. Last week, they hit 103.6 million barrels, the lowest since early May 2008 when oil prices neared record highs (See Figure 5). Cushing inventories dropped, staying below the 5-year range (Figure 11). They're not a concern yet but could be if Canadian imports decline.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 14, 2025

This article was posted in late 2023 but remains relevant today. The above is form an old paper that proves that OPEC is not a cartel. Subscribe now The oil industry, just like any other extractive industry, is capital intensive with its costs mostly being sunk cost, while the operating cost is relatively small. During a period of an economic downturn and very low oil prices, producers focus on the operating cost.

Management

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 12, 2025

This is the recording of a Space we had earlier today on X. Two important conclusions: 1- This is an investment road show. No major political outcomes. 2- Too early for nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia President Trump’s Visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & the UAE: Political & Economic Implications & Impact on Energy Markets Or: President Trump’s Visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & the UAE: Political & Economic Implications & Impact on Energy Markets With Prof @BernardHa

Energy

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 11, 2025

May 12, 2025 EU LNG imports hit a record high in April, with US imports also at record high as Russia's share declined. US shipments to the EU increased in recent months as they were diverted from Asia to Europe due to favorable price differentials. Consequently, China imported no US LNG, while Asian companies profited from diverting carriers to Europe.

Gas

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 8, 2025

Share MacroVoices Podcast: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts? Or: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts? Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Energy

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 The OPEC+ group of eight (V8) stated in its press release that low global oil inventories are a key reason for the production increase of 411 kb/d in June. Below is a chart confirming their statement.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 5, 2025

Al Khairat Thermal Power Plant in Iraq. Source: Harlow Group, 2025. Our Saturday Note “ What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts ?” concluded that the increased production ceiling has limited impact, but bearish sentiment will delay market realization. Oil prices fell 4.5% initially, recovering to a smaller decline by day's end.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 3, 2025

The group of 8 (or V8), OPEC+ members who made voluntary cuts, agreed to expedite unwinding the 2.2 mb/d cuts by increasing production ceiling by 411 kb/d in May and another 411 kb/d in June. The impact is less bearish than perceived by media and market participants. This raises the production ceiling and not necessarily production. Raising production ceiling legitimizes overproduction that is already in the market.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 1, 2025

This is an edited version of the note posted on December 4, 2024. Since then, the Trump Administration imposed sanctions on Iranian oil. As expected in our December 4 note, none worked. Recently, the Trump Administration began negotiations with Iran. After several meetings, talks broke down suddenly, angering President Trump, leading him to write the text below.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 30, 2025

April 30, 2025 Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. EOA’s Main Takeaway Although inventory changes followed historical trends, the recent decline in gasoline inventories was larger and steeper than usual and the decline in crude inventories surprised traders.

Maintenance

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 29, 2025

OPEC+ V8 production increase is less bearish than the market perceives. Media and analysts overlooked Saudi Arabia's strategic considerations and the benefits of increasing production ceiling. Canadian election results may affect crude differentials more than overall oil prices, especially in light of sanctions on Venezuela and tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan crude.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 23, 2025

US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts).

Refinery

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 20, 2025

Share Today, April 20, marks the anniversary of three major events that reshaped the oil industry: negative oil prices in 2020, the Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010 , and Adolf Hitler's birth in 1889. This note focuses on the 2020 negative oil prices.

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 16, 2025

April 16, 2025 Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway Although inventory changes align with historical trends, three issues stand out: Read more

Oil

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 14, 2025

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced after meeting Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in Riyadh yesterday that the US will sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia for peaceful civilian nuclear energy cooperation. Details will follow later this year. The news raised a question: Why does Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, need nuclear energy?

Energy