Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 18, 2025

Subscribe now Oil market data has deteriorated since 2017 due to the US EIA's inability to define "crude" and distinguish actual crude production in shale plays. Crude production numbers include condensates and NGLs, counted as NGLs on the demand side but as crude when blended with Canadian crude for export. This issue is global, as agencies, banks, and consultants rely on EIA data.

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Oil Supply Chain Condensate Consulting 211

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 14, 2025

May 14, 2025 Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway We've warned about declining distillate inventories for weeks. Last week, they hit 103.6 million barrels, the lowest since early May 2008 when oil prices neared record highs (See Figure 5). Cushing inventories dropped, staying below the 5-year range (Figure 11). They're not a concern yet but could be if Canadian imports decline.

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Oil Exploration and Production Barrel Drivers 152

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 14, 2025

This article was posted in late 2023 but remains relevant today. The above is form an old paper that proves that OPEC is not a cartel. Subscribe now The oil industry, just like any other extractive industry, is capital intensive with its costs mostly being sunk cost, while the operating cost is relatively small. During a period of an economic downturn and very low oil prices, producers focus on the operating cost.

Exploration and Production 161

Exploration and Production Management Oil Government 161

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 12, 2025

This is the recording of a Space we had earlier today on X. Two important conclusions: 1- This is an investment road show. No major political outcomes. 2- Too early for nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia President Trump’s Visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & the UAE: Political & Economic Implications & Impact on Energy Markets Or: President Trump’s Visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & the UAE: Political & Economic Implications & Impact on Energy Markets With Prof @BernardHa

Energy 130

Energy Energy 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 11, 2025

May 12, 2025 EU LNG imports hit a record high in April, with US imports also at record high as Russia's share declined. US shipments to the EU increased in recent months as they were diverted from Asia to Europe due to favorable price differentials. Consequently, China imported no US LNG, while Asian companies profited from diverting carriers to Europe.

Gas 161

Gas IT Natural Gas Pipeline 161

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 8, 2025

Share MacroVoices Podcast: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts? Or: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts? Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Energy 141

Energy Energy 141

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 The OPEC+ group of eight (V8) stated in its press release that low global oil inventories are a key reason for the production increase of 411 kb/d in June. Below is a chart confirming their statement.

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Oil IT 141

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 5, 2025

Al Khairat Thermal Power Plant in Iraq. Source: Harlow Group, 2025. Our Saturday Note “ What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts ?” concluded that the increased production ceiling has limited impact, but bearish sentiment will delay market realization. Oil prices fell 4.5% initially, recovering to a smaller decline by day's end.

Oil 189

Oil 189

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 3, 2025

The group of 8 (or V8), OPEC+ members who made voluntary cuts, agreed to expedite unwinding the 2.2 mb/d cuts by increasing production ceiling by 411 kb/d in May and another 411 kb/d in June. The impact is less bearish than perceived by media and market participants. This raises the production ceiling and not necessarily production. Raising production ceiling legitimizes overproduction that is already in the market.

Oil 217

Oil 217

Energy Outlook Advisors

MAY 1, 2025

This is an edited version of the note posted on December 4, 2024. Since then, the Trump Administration imposed sanctions on Iranian oil. As expected in our December 4 note, none worked. Recently, the Trump Administration began negotiations with Iran. After several meetings, talks broke down suddenly, angering President Trump, leading him to write the text below.

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Oil Field Refinery API 269

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 30, 2025

April 30, 2025 Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. EOA’s Main Takeaway Although inventory changes followed historical trends, the recent decline in gasoline inventories was larger and steeper than usual and the decline in crude inventories surprised traders.

Oil 161

Oil Refinery Maintenance Energy 161

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 29, 2025

OPEC+ V8 production increase is less bearish than the market perceives. Media and analysts overlooked Saudi Arabia's strategic considerations and the benefits of increasing production ceiling. Canadian election results may affect crude differentials more than overall oil prices, especially in light of sanctions on Venezuela and tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan crude.

Oil 141

Oil 141

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 23, 2025

US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts).

Refinery 141

Refinery Utilities Oil 141

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 20, 2025

Share Today, April 20, marks the anniversary of three major events that reshaped the oil industry: negative oil prices in 2020, the Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010 , and Adolf Hitler's birth in 1889. This note focuses on the 2020 negative oil prices.

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Oil Petroleum Energy Energy 183

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 16, 2025

April 16, 2025 Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway Although inventory changes align with historical trends, three issues stand out: Read more

Oil 152

Oil 152

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 14, 2025

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced after meeting Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in Riyadh yesterday that the US will sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia for peaceful civilian nuclear energy cooperation. Details will follow later this year. The news raised a question: Why does Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, need nuclear energy?

Energy 189

Energy Energy Oil 189

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 9, 2025

April 9, 2025 Subscribe now IN DETAIL US crude oil inventories rose by 2.553 mb to 442.3 mb last week, per the EIA (Figure 1). Cushing inventories declined by 0.681 mb to 25.759 mb. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves grew by 0.276 mb to 396.7 mb. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 mb to 236 mb. Distillate inventories dropped by 3.544 mb to 111.1 mb. US crude imports decreased by 277 mb/d to 6.189 mb/d last week.

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Oil Crude Oil Refinery Petroleum 177

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 7, 2025

Dear Readers, At the time of this writing, oil prices and most Asian markets were in the green. If this sort of recovery continues, it supports our base scenario discussed in both X Spaces below. Subscribe now We had two separate X Spaces last night where I discussed tariffs and energy markets. The first one entitled: Oil & LNG Markets Among Trump, OPEC+, & China: What's Next?

Oil 152

Oil Energy Energy IT 152

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 3, 2025

Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Oil 161

Oil Energy Energy 161

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 3, 2025

Observers predicted a policy shift toward Venezuela months before the US elections if President Trump won a second term. After making his decisions public, surprises included terminating Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela and imposing tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan oil. On February 26, President Trump announced the termination of Chevron’s license, effective March 1, 2025, later extended to May 27, 2025, reversing President Biden’s decision from November 26, 2022, t

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Oil Crude Oil Refinery Operator 169

Energy Outlook Advisors

APRIL 1, 2025

Short video explaining the reasons for the rise in oil prices Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Oil 211

Oil Energy Energy 211

Energy Outlook Advisors

MARCH 26, 2025

March 26, 2025 Subscribe now EOA’s Main Takeaway Changes in inventories followed historical trends. Given planned refinery maintenance and announced closures, we are concerned that low distillate inventories might raise diesel prices, even if oil prices do not rise. Currently, distillate inventories are near the bottom of the 5-year range. Cushing inventories are below the 5-year range for this time of year, but as discussed previously, Cushing lost relevance years ago when pipelines were

Oil 169

Oil Refinery Maintenance Pipeline 169

Energy Outlook Advisors

MARCH 19, 2025

In response to Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford's decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States, President Trump announced a plan to apply an additional 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, doubling the total taxes on imported Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Although Trump paused this additional tax after six hours, his initial decision to apply a 25% tax on all imported metals risks increasing prices on various consumer and industrial good

Gas 161

Gas IT 161

Energy Outlook Advisors

MARCH 12, 2025

March 12, 2025 EOA’s Main Takeaway Although changes in inventories followed historical trends, the bad weather in Texas has influenced exports and imports. Gasoline inventories are currently at a comfortable level, but refinery maintenance might lead to low levels at the start of summer. We will monitor jet fuel demand, expecting it might decline significantly due to slow economic growth and reduced government travel.

Oil 161

Oil Refinery Maintenance Casing 161

Energy Outlook Advisors

DECEMBER 27, 2024

It has been nearly three years since the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The impact of the invasion on global gas markets was unprecedented as analysts struggled to comprehend the changes and the consequences. The invasion has not only appended world trade in gas, but also changed how gas is transported form pipelines to LNG carriers. It also changed the geopolitics of natural gas as Russia lost influence in Europe to the US.

Gas 130

Gas Pipeline Natural Gas Transportation 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 8, 2025

EOA’s Main Takeaway While crude, gasoline and distillate inventories followed historical trends, one thing is clear: the change in crude is less than in the past and change in gasoline and distillate is way stronger than in the past. Crude inventories are not only lower than the 5-year average by about 6%, but they are even lower than the bottom of the 5-year range.

Oil 130

Oil IT 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 10, 2025

Oil Prices Rise above $79/b Here is a short video explaining the reasons for the rise in oil prices today: [link] 2025 Oil market Outlook Here is a link to the latest interview on the oil market outlook in 2025 (Video): [link] Treasury Intensifies Sanctions Against Russia by Targeting Russia’s Oil Production and Exports US Treasury: Treasury Intensifies Sanctions Against Russia by Targeting Russia’s Oil Production and Exports SCMP: US imposes new Russia sanctions, hoping to reduce oi

Oil 130

Oil 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 12, 2025

Delays, maintenance, economic growth, and politics will remain the main drivers of LNG demand and supply in 2025. While the Trump Administration can expedite licensing, it cannot influence construction and maintenance times. The increase in LNG supply was limited in 2024, but a larger increase is expected in 2025. Prices are expected to remain elevated in Q1 2025 due to growing demand in Europe and the MENA region.

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Maintenance Drivers IT 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 15, 2025

January 15, 2025 EOA’s Main Takeaway All major variables followed historical trends: crude, gasoline, distillate, Cushing, demand, refinery utilization, import, and exports. What stands out is the sharp increase in gasoline inventories in the last nine weeks. It was the largest increase since early 2020. US gasoline exports have been increasing in recent months and exports in December were at the highest level in several years.

Oil 130

Oil Refinery Utilities IT 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 20, 2025

The current tight gas market in Europe and high gas prices should not surprise our readers. We predicted this last February. However, additional factors in 2025 are expected to make European gas markets more volatile: the halt of Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine, President Trump's election in the US, and the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine.

Gas 130

Gas Energy Energy 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 21, 2025

Energy Markets, including oil, gas, renewable energy, Hydrogen, & technology

Energy 130

Energy Energy Oil Gas 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 21, 2025

Related News: Bloomberg: Trump Starts Reshaping US Energy with Focus on Oil and Gas Reuters: Trump Says to Unleash American Fossil Fuels, Halt Climate Cooperation Reuters: Trump Orders Suspension of New Offshore Wind Power Leasing White House: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements Subscribe now Summary On his first day President Trump declared a national energy emergency to fast-track oil and gas projects, reversed Biden-era environmental protections, withdrew from the

Oil 130

Oil Gas Energy Energy 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 23, 2025

US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts).

Refinery 130

Refinery Utilities Oil 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 30, 2025

After two years of divergent forecasts, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA's 2025 global economic growth predictions are surprisingly close, though differences between OPEC and the IEA remain relatively large. Interestingly, these forecasts align closely with ours.

Oil 130

Oil 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

JANUARY 30, 2025

January 30, 2025 EOA’s Main Takeaway Crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories have followed their historical trends. However, the decline in distillate inventories was higher than usual. Even so, we should take these numbers with grains of salt because they are influenced by the freezing weather that shut down some refineries. We will know in the coming weeks if US oil demand is growing.

Oil 130

Oil Refinery 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

Related News Bloomberg: Trump Bets Oil Suppliers’ Tariff Pain Will Mean Long-Term US Gains Summary President Trump's tariffs are pressuring Mexico and Canada into negotiations by hiking import costs for US producers of fuel and plastics. This has domestic drawbacks, with Midwest refineries facing higher feedstock costs from Canadian oil dependency, and coastal refineries seeking new suppliers.

Oil 130

Oil IT Refinery Petroleum 130

Energy Outlook Advisors

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

Subscribe now The News Bloomberg: Chinese Tariffs on US LNG Set to Reroute Global Trade Flows Summary China's imposition of a 15% retaliatory tariff on US LNG in response to US tariffs on Chinese goods will disrupt the trade relationship between the world's largest LNG buyer and seller. This action will likely lead Chinese buyers to redirect their US LNG shipments to other markets.

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Oil Electronics Electronics Finance 130