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Wary of the ‘Hockey Stick’, Oil Traders Hedge Their 2025 Exposure - Open interest in WTI calendar spread options - contracts that see market participants bid on the future value of crude oil futures across different delivery months – has reached an all-time high as traders expect this year’s assumed oversupply to only materialize in 2026. -
million barrels per day (bpd) in Q2 2025 to around 13.3 million bpd by the end of 2026, according to the U.S. Peak shale may already be behind us. crude oil production is now forecast to slip from a record 13.5
In a note published Thursday, the bank said it sees oil averaging $60 in 2026, but flagged $120–$130 per barrel as a potential range in the event of worst-case outcomes—namely, military conflict and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil flows. and potentially Israel.
million barrels per day (bpd) in overproduction so far, and the compensation plans entail offsetting all above-quota output by June 2026. The eight OPEC+ countries that have been cutting oil production will have to compensate 4.57
Goldman Sachs has reduced its outlook for oil prices for the third time since the start of April, now expecting Brent crude to average $63 this year and $58 in 2026. The bank sees WTI at an average of $59 per barrel this year, falling to $55 in 2026, Reuters reported.
Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their outlook for global oil demand upwards, now expecting growth of 600,000 barrels daily this year and 400,000 barrels daily in 2026. Brent crude was trading at over $65 per barrel at the time of writing, and WTI was trading at over $62.
Wall Street banks are racing this week to slash their oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 after OPEC+ threw another curveball at the market this weekend by vowing to continue raising production by more than initially planned. Commodity strategists and analysts from major U.S.
crude oil supply will rise more slowly than expected for the rest of 2025 and in 2026 and peak as early as this year, as WTI benchmark prices below $60 per barrel are testing the breakeven point of shale production, energy flows intelligence firm Kpler said on Monday.
million barrels per day (bpd), and then rise another 4.3% in 2026 to 5.99 India is fast cementing its status as the worlds top engine of oil demand growthovertaking China earlier than expected and showing no signs of slowing down. According to OPECs latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Indias oil demand is projected to grow by 3.4%
Abu Dhabis national oil company, ADNOC, forecasts lower export volumes of its flagship Murban crude between August 2025 and May 2026, as it plans to process higher volumes of the grade domestically.
Per the new scenario, Brent crude will average $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in the September 2024 scenario, Interfax reported today. Russias Economy Ministry has lowered its forecast for oil prices this year in an update for its baseline scenario, reflecting the latest trends on global oil markets.
The EIA now anticipates a growth of 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the current year, a decrease from the previously forecasted 1.2 For 2026, the projection is adjusted to 1.1 million bpd.
(Investing) – Israel’s attack on Iran is unlikely to cause a major disruption to oil supply, analysts at two major banks said, but a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel, Goldman Sachs said. per barrel. [O/R]
Liquids supply from OPEC+s rivals including the United States is set to increase by 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down by 100,000 bpd compared to OPECs assessment of 900,000-bpd growth last month. In 2026, liquids supply from non-OPEC+ producers is expected to rise by another 800,000 bpd, also down by 100,000 bpd from
Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 to 438,000 bpd after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Additional production from Phase 1 of the Pikka development project on the North Slope drives the forecast increased production in 2026.
oil production growth later this year and could lead to an annual decline in output in 2026, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights. tariffsnow expects global oil (total liquids) demand growth to average 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a downward revision of 500,000 bpd from the prior outlook.
Goldman Sachs revised down its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and WTI crude in 2026, citing increased recession risks and the possibility of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply. In a note dated April 6, the bank cut its 2026 average price forecast by $4 for Brent to $58 a barrel and WTI to $55. The [Read more]
The bank now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56/bbl in 2026 down by $2 from its previous estimate. It has also cut its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by $3/bbl, now projecting it to average $56/bbl for the remainder of 2025 and $52/bbl in 2026. a barrel.
Energy Information Administration on Wednesday forecast that Alaska’s annual crude oil production will increase in 2026, a first since 2017 and, if realized, the largest since 2002.
The platform is due to leave the Netherlands in October 2025 and become operational in Pointe-Noire by early 2026, the company said. Perenco said it is supporting the country’s ambition to hit production of 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030. To contact the author, email andreson.n.paul@gmail.com What do you think?
Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62/b, citing “a rocky road ahead for fundamentals” amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+’s pivot in its production strategy.
Weizhou 5-3 is expected to reach a peak output of about 10,000 barrels a day next year, the state-backed oil and gas explorer and producer said in an online statement Monday. The Caofeidian 6-4 adjustment project is expected to achieve 11,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boed) in peak production 2026. feet) deep.
Barclays lowered its Brent oil price forecast by $4 per barrel to $66/bbl for 2025 and by $2 to $60/bbl for 2026, citing the decision by OPEC+ to accelerate oil production hikes. “Tariff-related developments have certainly been a drag but the OPEC+ pivot has also been a significant driver of the move lower in oil [Read more]
The Oilholic is not among them - a hike is most likely coming, quite possibly of the same volume seen in the previous two announcements, i.e. 411k barrels per day (bpd). For its part, the oil market is pricing this in already and at some point soon - were this continue - sub-$60 per barrel Brent crude prices beckon.
million barrels per day (bpd). million barrels from cumulative output by 2026. This has been a major headache for the other OPEC+ producers, many of which have been sticking to their quotas, especially the leader, Saudi Arabia. Under the OPEC+ agreement, Kazakhstans crude oil production quota is below 1.5
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas and 290,000 barrels per day of condensate at the Longtail project, per the request for environmental authorization from Guyana seen by Reuters. The supermajor and its partners have several oil projects on stream, collectively producing more than 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.
The bank expects Brent and WTI oil prices to edge down, averaging $63 and $59 a barrel, respectively, for the remainder of 2025, and [Read more] Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline through the end of this year and next year because of the rising risk of a recession and higher supply from the OPEC+ group.
Oil forecasts show the immediate market impact from the approximately $10 per barrel drop in April 2025, with banks reducing their 2025 price projection to $58.30 per barrel from $61.89 per barrel in Fall 2024. That consistency helps support continued access to secured credit for oil and gas producers.
Chevron is undergoing one of the biggest restructurings in its modern history and announced plans to reduce its global workforce by as much as 20%, or 9,000 people, by the end of 2026.
per barrel for 2025 and $65 per barrel for 2026. million barrel per day (mbd) [Read more] HSBC revised down its Brent crude price forecast on Tuesday, citing rising trade tensions and an expected reduction in global oil demand. The bank cut its Brent price forecast to $68.5 It also trimmed its global demand growth to 0.7
The Ballymore development is designed to produce up to 75,000 gross barrels of oil per day from three production wells, all connected via a subsea tieback to Chevrons existing Blind Faith facility, located approximately three miles from the well site. Partnership and Ownership The project is operated by Chevron U.S.A.
Middle East Oil Demand: Trends and Outlook (2025–2026) Oil demand in the Middle East continues to grow, though at a slower pace than late 2024. Iraq and the UAE are driving recent gains, while Saudi Arabia saw a slight dip.
CEO Jon Harris reported strong performance so far this year, with gross average production of approximately 44,900 barrels of oil per day (bopd) supported by steady local demand and optimisation efforts. The company paid a $25 million [approx. billion] interim dividend in April and remains debt-free with $100 million [approx.
Petronas will also freeze hiring until December 2026, he said. Petronas sets its budget based on Brent oil at around $75 to $80 per barrel, Taufik said. “The margins are shrinking, the fields are getting smaller,” Taufik said. “It will be challenging to meet dividend targets” with current oil prices, he said.
Chevron’s first development in the Norphlet trend of the Gulf, Ballymore has a capacity of 75,000 barrels of oil a day. Chevron estimates potentially recoverable resources to be 150 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) over the life of the project. Gulf to 300,000 boed by 2026.
million barrels per day (mb/d) over a 12-month period for every $10 per barrel decline in oil prices when Brent crude is above $70. The Wall Street bank estimates 2026 non-OPEC+ supply growth to decrease from 1.05 Goldman Sachs on Monday said it expects non-OPEC+ output growth to slow by about 0.3 Read more]
Goldman Sachs sees upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast in 2025 and 2026 from recent trade de-escalation, it said in a note on Tuesday. The bank estimates around $3-4 per barrel of upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast of $60/bbl and $56/bbl respectively for the rest of [Read more]
Libyas NOC is working with IOCs Repsol, bp, TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips and more to increase output to two million barrels per day (bpd). mtpa Coral South FLNG project has been operating since 2022 while ExxonMobil plans to make FID on Rovuma LNG in 2026.
The bank now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56/bbl in 2026 down [Read more] Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecast following decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, to accelerate oil output increases, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
to $69 a barrel and for WTI prices by 4.3% The Wall Street brokerage also chopped its 2026 average price forecast for Brent by [Read more] Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Brent crude’s average price this year by 5.5% to $66, citing the risks of higher OPEC+ supply and the global trade war triggering a recession.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its December 2025 and average 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices, citing slower oil demand growth prospects and expectations of higher OPEC+ supply, it said in a note dated on Sunday. The bank expects Brent at $71 per barrel in December, down $5 from its previous forecast, and [Read more]
Algeria contributed 154 million cubic feet a day of gas and 21,000 barrels per day of liquids to TotalEnergies’ 2024 production, according to the company’s annual report. Ahara marks QatarEnergy’s entry into Algeria’s upstream sector, QatarEnergy said separately.
World oil demand rose by 990,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2025. The estimate for full-year 2026 demand growth is also close to the 2025 forecast and to last months already slashed projections760,000 bpd. Last months projection was slashed by 300,000 bpd from IEAs forecast from March, following the U.S.
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